Subject: RE: What is at stake?

From: Franck Martin <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 16:11:08 +1200

The time is to move from 35% (early adopters) to 60% (beginning of mass
distribution), not from 0% to 60%.

Franck Martin
Network and Database Development Officer
SOPAC South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission
Fiji
E-mail: [email-masked] <mailto:[email-masked]> 
Web site: http://www.sopac.org/
<http://www.sopac.org/> Support FMaps: http://fmaps.sourceforge.net/
<http://fmaps.sourceforge.net/> 

This e-mail is intended for its addresses only. Do not forward this e-mail
without approval. The views expressed in this e-mail may not be necessarily
the views of SOPAC.

-----Original Message-----
From: Gary E. Miller [mailto:[email-masked]]
Sent: Thursday, 24 January 2002 3:40 
To: Ed Gerck
Cc: [email-masked]
Subject: Re: What is at stake?

Yo All!

Well Al Gore invented the internet in the early '80s, and the internet
penetration was not 60% by the early '90s, SO I think these numbers
are bogus.

RGDS
GARY
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gary E. Miller Rellim 20340 Empire Blvd, Suite E-3, Bend, OR 97701
	[email-masked]  Tel:+1(541)382-8588 Fax: +1(541)382-8676

On Wed, 23 Jan 2002, Ed Gerck wrote:

> The Internet broke the 60 percent penetration barrier in the U.S. faster
> than any other medium. For example, some 35 percent of the U.S.
> population had phone use in 1920, but penetration didn't reach 60
> percent until 1950. With the Internet, a comparable increase in
> usage only took two years.

---

From: Ed Gerck <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 23:07:19 -0800

> distribution), not from 0% to 60%.

Yes, as it was exemplified for phone use: 30 years to move from 35% in 1920
to 60% in 1950.

To those who were surprised by my posting, please note that I quoted
official 1999/2000 US Census Bureau data. These are not bogus numbers,
nor a political view, nor data from "who invented the Internet".

But when the US Census woke up in 1997 to find that the Internet had
mushroomed overnight  -- and started to collect data on Internet use --
households with Internet access were already 18%.  However, how about
before 1997?

Well, before 1997 Internet use was so marginal in terms of socio-
economical  consequences that the US Census did not even bothered
to collect data on its use!

The conclusion is clear. Our Most Valuable experience before 1997 has
limited applicability.  Thus, IMO, it doesn't help the IETF, nor the Internet
as we have it today, to use arguments such as "The only problem with that
assessment is 25 years of Internet experience, all of which was based of no
conformance verification, but quite a bit of effectiveness."

What was effective 25 or even 10 years ago is surely important but we need
to recognize that it has limited application to today's Internet.  For example,
it seems that we need (and for some time already) to introduce a public
non-conformance list (NCL). The NCL would make no promises to the future
(unlike a conformance list), would not imply liability (because it exerts no power),
and could help make a good selling point  even for those companies listed in
the NCL -- "Look, we had six NC complaints and we fixed them all! Our product
has no current NC complaint."

So, as a practical proposal,  I would welcome comments from anyone who
would like to co-author  an ID on this topic.  I already got some 30-year
experience feedback that could be useful ;-)

Cheers,

Ed Gerck